Summer Memories

A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.48

7,461 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $4.03 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.40%

422 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

40 openings · below min

7 days

90.09%±16.32306 openings

30 days

82.40%±13.89422 openings

since tracking started

82.40%±13.89422 openings

38.0%83.7%129.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	40	83.55%±45.1	—	odds
7d	306	90.09%±16.3	+0.0σ	odds
30d	422	82.40%±13.9	−1.1σ	odds
All	422	82.40%±13.9	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 422 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$52.38 87,265 BUX	13.0%	2	4.2	0.47×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$25.03 41,699 BUX	18.6%	8	12.7	0.63×
Souvenir P250 \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade	15.0%	$7.62 12,694 BUX	28.4%	71	63.3	1.12×
Sticker \| Vitality (Gold) \| Paris 2023sticker · Extraordinary	20.0%	$2.99 4,981 BUX	14.8%	100	84.4	1.18×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Aloha (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	21.0%	$2.72 4,531 BUX	14.2%	90	88.6	1.02×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	40.0%	$1.11 1,849 BUX	11.0%	151	168.8	0.89×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 16:10 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$4.487,461 BUX$1.111,849 BUX0.25x1h

AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial GradeHALAMADRID$4.487,461 BUX$1.111,849 BUX0.25x1h

Sticker | Vitality (Gold) | Paris 2023sticker · Extraordinary$4.487,461 BUX$2.994,981 BUX0.67x1h

AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial GradeHALAMADRID$4.487,461 BUX$1.111,849 BUX0.25x1h

AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$4.487,461 BUX$1.111,849 BUX0.25x1h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Aloha (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$4.487,461 BUX$2.724,531 BUX0.61x1h

AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade$4.487,461 BUX$1.111,849 BUX0.25x1h

Sticker | Vitality (Gold) | Paris 2023sticker · ExtraordinaryHALAMADRID$4.487,461 BUX$2.994,981 BUX0.67x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:38 UTC	$4.48	90.00%	6

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 1.0%Classified 3.0%Consumer Grade 15.0%Extraordinary 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 21.0%Industrial Grade 40.0%best hit —