8th Birthday of 500
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.63
17,712 BUX
Advertised RTP
88.50%
EV $9.41 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.44%
169 openings, odds method
Variance
14.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 173 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 200 | $558 930,261 BUX | 29.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $97.05 161,685 BUX | 10.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $24.16 40,250 BUX | 12.8% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.81× |
| CS20 Case Keyother · Base Grade | 18.5% | $10.83 18,042 BUX | 21.3% | 33 | 32.0 | 1.03× |
| Aces High Pinpin · exotic | 25.0% | $5.82 9,696 BUX | 15.5% | 41 | 43.3 | 0.95× |
| Patch | BIG | Stockholm 2021patch · High Grade | 50.0% | $1.96 3,265 BUX | 10.4% | 90 | 86.5 | 1.04× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 13 Nov, 02:19 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $10.63 | 88.50% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 25.5%covert 6.0%Base Grade 18.5%High Grade 50.0%best hit $558 (52.52x)