Ancient Ritual
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.50
840 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $0.45 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.75%
4,374 openings, odds method
Variance
26.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,374 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Ancient Visions (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 2,000 | $44.23 73,687 BUX | 4.9% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted | 1 in 667 | $37.77 62,924 BUX | 12.5% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.46× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 333 | $33.37 55,594 BUX | 22.1% | 11 | 13.1 | 0.84× |
| Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Packagecontainer · Base Grade | 1 in 83 | $3.77 6,280 BUX | 10.0% | 49 | 52.5 | 0.93× |
| G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Well-Worn)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 59 | $3.23 5,381 BUX | 12.1% | 78 | 74.4 | 1.05× |
| Sticker | Ancient Beast (Foil)sticker · Exotic | 1 in 20 | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 9.7% | 228 | 218.7 | 1.04× |
| P90 | Ancient Earth (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 20 | $0.53 882 BUX | 5.8% | 230 | 218.7 | 1.05× |
| SSG 08 | Dezastre (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 15 | $0.25 416 BUX | 3.6% | 275 | 288.7 | 0.95× |
| Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 80.0% | $0.11 183 BUX | 19.4% | 3,499 | 3499.2 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.50840 BUX$0.11183 BUX0.22x
Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.50840 BUX$0.11183 BUX0.22x
Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.50840 BUX$0.11183 BUX0.22x
Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.50840 BUX$0.11183 BUX0.22x
Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.50840 BUX$0.11183 BUX0.22x
Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.50840 BUX$0.11183 BUX0.22x
Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$0.50840 BUX$0.11183 BUX0.22x
Souvenir MP7 | Tall Grass (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradesad_man17$0.50840 BUX$0.11183 BUX0.22x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $0.50 | 90.01% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 0.2%classified 0.3%Base Grade 1.2%Industrial Grade 81.7%Exotic 5.0%Consumer Grade 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 6.6%best hit $44.23 (87.72x)