Haunted Arsenal
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.25
7,079 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $3.82 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
102.45%
535 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 535 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $33.37 55,594 BUX | 13.1% | 12 | 8.0 | 1.50× |
| MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 1 in 16 | $19.52 32,520 BUX | 31.9% | 43 | 33.4 | 1.29× |
| Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade | 1 in 14 | $17.33 28,871 BUX | 32.9% | 37 | 38.8 | 0.95× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $2.22 3,698 BUX | 8.7% | 83 | 80.3 | 1.03× |
| Sticker | Witchsticker · High Grade | 17.5% | $0.79 1,316 BUX | 3.6% | 80 | 93.6 | 0.85× |
| Sticker | Witchcraftsticker · High Grade | 17.5% | $0.77 1,282 BUX | 3.5% | 94 | 93.6 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff | 17.5% | $0.69 1,149 BUX | 3.2% | 84 | 93.6 | 0.90× |
| Sticker | Lord of Skulls (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 17.5% | $0.69 1,149 BUX | 3.2% | 102 | 93.6 | 1.09× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$4.257,079 BUX$2.223,698 BUX0.52x
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$4.257,079 BUX$2.223,698 BUX0.52x
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeHALAMADRID$4.257,079 BUX$2.223,698 BUX0.52x
StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff$4.257,079 BUX$0.691,149 BUX0.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $4.25 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.5%blue 6.3%Industrial Grade 7.2%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%High Grade 35.0%#4b69ff 17.5%Remarkable 17.5%best hit —