Graveyard Cache
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.32
33,857 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $18.29 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.78%
107 openings, odds method
Variance
9.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 107 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 200 | $674 1,122,917 BUX | 18.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Souvenir USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 67 | $313 521,191 BUX | 25.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 25 | $92.11 153,455 BUX | 20.1% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× |
| Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 13 | $23.19 38,634 BUX | 9.5% | 11 | 8.0 | 1.37× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Shallow Grave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 11 | $14.66 24,423 BUX | 7.4% | 10 | 9.9 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 10 | $13.14 21,891 BUX | 7.0% | 10 | 10.4 | 0.96× |
| Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 11.0% | $9.15 15,243 BUX | 5.5% | 11 | 11.8 | 0.93× |
| P250 | Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.5% | $7.24 12,061 BUX | 4.9% | 18 | 13.4 | 1.35× |
| Dreams & Nightmares Casecontainer · Base Grade | 44.0% | $0.58 966 BUX | 1.4% | 44 | 47.1 | 0.93× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P90 | Shallow Grave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$20.3233,857 BUX$14.6624,423 BUX0.72x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$20.3233,857 BUX$92.11153,455 BUX4.53x
Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrialKronerkongen$20.3233,857 BUX$23.1938,634 BUX1.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $20.32 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.5%mil spec 12.5%Classified 13.3%industrial 7.5%classified 22.3%Base Grade 44.0%best hit $674 (33.17x)