Wicked Wares
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$133.83
222,953 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $120.44 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
112.08%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
5.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Titan | Katowice 2014sticker · high | 1 in 200 | $2,670 4,447,720 BUX | 11.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $2,203 3,670,631 BUX | 18.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 22 | $424 705,767 BUX | 15.8% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 15 | $328 546,914 BUX | 17.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 14 | $309 514,327 BUX | 17.9% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 12.5% | $90.91 151,456 BUX | 9.4% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $50.07 83,416 BUX | 6.2% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× |
| StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 20.0% | $14.46 24,090 BUX | 2.4% | 8 | 4.8 | 1.67× |
| StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 33.0% | $3.89 6,480 BUX | 1.1% | 6 | 7.9 | 0.76× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 09:57 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$134222,953 BUX$3.896,480 BUX0.03x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$134222,953 BUX$14.4624,090 BUX0.11x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedKronerkongen$134222,953 BUX$14.4624,090 BUX0.11x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$134222,953 BUX$3.896,480 BUX0.03x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$134222,953 BUX$3.896,480 BUX0.03x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedKronerkongen$134222,953 BUX$3.896,480 BUX0.03x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$134222,953 BUX$14.4624,090 BUX0.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $134 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.5%Covert 1.0%restricted 37.5%covert 6.5%extraordinary 7.0%classified 27.5%Classified 20.0%best hit $2,670 (19.95x)