Ember Intrigue
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.29
5,484 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2.96 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.79%
397 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 459 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $36.10 60,142 BUX | 18.3% | 9 | 6.9 | 1.31× |
| StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $6.08 10,129 BUX | 30.8% | 72 | 68.8 | 1.05× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 17.5% | $3.96 6,597 BUX | 23.4% | 80 | 80.3 | 1.00× |
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 21.0% | $1.72 2,865 BUX | 12.2% | 86 | 96.4 | 0.89× |
| R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue | 20.0% | $1.10 1,832 BUX | 7.4% | 86 | 91.8 | 0.94× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $0.94 1,566 BUX | 7.9% | 126 | 114.8 | 1.10× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.295,484 BUX$3.966,597 BUX1.20x
StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.295,484 BUX$3.966,597 BUX1.20x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHALAMADRID$3.295,484 BUX$0.941,566 BUX0.29x
StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedLe Shake$3.295,484 BUX$3.966,597 BUX1.20x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedLidthyggepågeden$3.295,484 BUX$0.941,566 BUX0.29x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.295,484 BUX$0.941,566 BUX0.29x
StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$3.295,484 BUX$3.966,597 BUX1.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $3.29 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 1.5%restricted 78.5%blue 20.0%best hit —