Rebel Vanguard
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$49.35
82,212 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $44.41 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.96%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
68.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $184 306,610 BUX | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 22 | $136 226,492 BUX | 13.8% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $72.07 120,068 BUX | 19.5% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 14.0% | $63.28 105,424 BUX | 19.9% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 15.0% | $42.50 70,805 BUX | 14.4% | 6 | 3.0 | 2.00× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 25.0% | $26.45 44,065 BUX | 14.9% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| Vypa Sista of the Revolution | Guerrilla Warfareagent · red | 28.5% | $20.91 34,836 BUX | 13.4% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$49.3582,212 BUX$42.5070,805 BUX0.86x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$49.3582,212 BUX$26.4544,065 BUX0.54x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedterney$49.3582,212 BUX$42.5070,805 BUX0.86x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$49.3582,212 BUX$63.28105,424 BUX1.28x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$49.3582,212 BUX$63.28105,424 BUX1.28x
USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedmaxz9590$49.3582,212 BUX$136226,492 BUX2.75x
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$49.3582,212 BUX$42.5070,805 BUX0.86x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $49.35 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 26.0%classified 31.5%Mil Spec Grade 14.0%red 28.5%best hit —