Royal Rites
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$73.01
121,637 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $65.71 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
131.98%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
59.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $190 316,373 BUX | 11.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| Sticker | Hobbit (Gold) | London 2018sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 12 | $132 219,278 BUX | 17.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Souvenir PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 13.0% | $89.09 148,423 BUX | 17.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $75.63 125,999 BUX | 17.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 20.0% | $53.22 88,664 BUX | 16.2% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 19.5% | $45.05 75,053 BUX | 13.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $22.86 38,084 BUX | 7.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $73.01 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 58.5%Extraordinary 8.5%Mil Spec Grade 13.0%restricted 20.0%best hit —