Phenomenal Phenomena
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$129.43
215,629 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $116.49 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
154.24%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 3.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $1,064 1,772,207 BUX | 9.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $445 742,086 BUX | 15.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $242 403,471 BUX | 15.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 16.5% | $200 333,516 BUX | 28.4% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Electric Hive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 20.5% | $113 187,674 BUX | 19.8% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× |
| StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6 | 25.0% | $29.17 48,597 BUX | 6.3% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 25.5% | $25.30 42,149 BUX | 5.5% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $129 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 47.0%covert 20.5%restricted 7.5%#d32ee6 25.0%best hit $1,064 (8.22x)