Astral Armament

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.40

4,000 BUX

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $2.16 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.96%

786 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

50 openings · below min

7 days

86.25%±13.66438 openings

30 days

89.96%±10.20786 openings

since tracking started

89.96%±10.20786 openings

51.0%92.0%133.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	50	91.92%±40.4	—	odds
7d	438	86.25%±13.7	−0.5σ	odds
30d	786	89.96%±10.2	−0.0σ	odds
All	786	89.96%±10.2	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 806 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 50	$21.90 36,485 BUX	20.3%	17	16.1	1.05×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$7.99 13,311 BUX	14.8%	34	32.2	1.05×
Nova \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 14	$6.71 11,178 BUX	21.7%	47	56.4	0.83×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted	17.0%	$2.63 4,381 BUX	20.7%	140	137.0	1.02×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$1.49 2,482 BUX	10.3%	127	120.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Humanity's Last Breath, Voidmusic kit · High Grade	25.0%	$0.50 833 BUX	5.8%	193	201.5	0.96×
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	30.0%	$0.46 766 BUX	6.4%	248	241.8	1.03×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$2.404,000 BUX$0.46766 BUX0.19x33m

Nova | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted$2.404,000 BUX$6.7111,178 BUX2.79x33m

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$2.404,000 BUX$0.46766 BUX0.19x33m

StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$2.404,000 BUX$1.492,482 BUX0.62x33m

StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$2.404,000 BUX$1.492,482 BUX0.62x3h

StatTrak™ Music Kit | Humanity's Last Breath, Voidmusic kit · High Grade$2.404,000 BUX$0.50833 BUX0.21x3h

USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricteduser-1e2e3e$2.404,000 BUX$2.634,381 BUX1.10x3h

USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restrictedLe Shake$2.404,000 BUX$2.634,381 BUX1.10x12h

StatTrak™ P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedLidthyggepågeden$2.404,000 BUX$1.492,482 BUX0.62x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 22:26 UTC	$2.40	89.99%	7

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedMil Spec Grade 2.0%#4b69ff 4.0%Restricted 7.0%restricted 32.0%High Grade 25.0%milspec 30.0%best hit —