Bone Peril
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.45
2,413 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.02%
EV $1.30 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.01%
1,495 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,626 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ MP7 | Skulls (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 33 | $16.75 27,905 BUX | 38.5% | 55 | 48.8 | 1.13× |
| XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $4.24 7,063 BUX | 16.3% | 82 | 81.3 | 1.01× |
| P250 | Bone Mask (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 14.0% | $1.73 2,882 BUX | 18.6% | 228 | 227.6 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 22.0% | $0.68 1,132 BUX | 11.5% | 355 | 357.7 | 0.99× |
| Patch | Danger Zonepatch · Remarkable | 27.0% | $0.40 666 BUX | 8.3% | 429 | 439.0 | 0.98× |
| PP-Bizon | Death Rattle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Consumer Grade | 29.0% | $0.31 516 BUX | 6.9% | 477 | 471.5 | 1.01× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 09:57 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$1.452,413 BUX$0.681,132 BUX0.47x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Skulls (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeŠtozaxuinia$1.452,413 BUX$16.7527,905 BUX11.56x
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Gradedinglebearet$1.452,413 BUX$0.681,132 BUX0.47x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.02%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $1.45 | 90.02% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMil Spec Grade 25.0%mil spec 5.0%consumer 14.0%Remarkable 27.0%Consumer Grade 29.0%best hit —