Celestial Clash
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.10
13,487 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $7.29 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.76%
177 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 181 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $63.09 105,107 BUX | 8.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $24.54 40,883 BUX | 10.1% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $18.46 30,754 BUX | 12.7% | 12 | 9.1 | 1.33× |
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $18.30 30,487 BUX | 12.6% | 11 | 9.1 | 1.22× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 19.0% | $8.06 13,427 BUX | 21.0% | 29 | 34.4 | 0.84× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary | 26.0% | $7.22 12,028 BUX | 25.8% | 57 | 47.1 | 1.21× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 41.0% | $1.64 2,732 BUX | 9.2% | 64 | 74.2 | 0.86× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$8.1013,487 BUX$1.642,732 BUX0.20x
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$8.1013,487 BUX$7.2212,028 BUX0.89x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$8.1013,487 BUX$1.642,732 BUX0.20x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHALAMADRID$8.1013,487 BUX$1.642,732 BUX0.20x
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$8.1013,487 BUX$7.2212,028 BUX0.89x
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$8.1013,487 BUX$7.2212,028 BUX0.89x
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary$8.1013,487 BUX$7.2212,028 BUX0.89x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$8.1013,487 BUX$1.642,732 BUX0.20x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$8.1013,487 BUX$1.642,732 BUX0.20x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $8.10 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 11.0%classified 22.0%Legendary 26.0%restricted 41.0%best hit —