Ceremonial Codex
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.87
6,452 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $3.49 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.48%
345 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 345 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $17.20 28,655 BUX | 34.5% | 26 | 24.2 | 1.08× |
| M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 13.0% | $6.41 10,679 BUX | 23.9% | 35 | 44.9 | 0.78× |
| CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert | 17.0% | $4.44 7,397 BUX | 21.7% | 66 | 58.7 | 1.13× |
| P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $2.17 3,615 BUX | 12.5% | 72 | 69.0 | 1.04× |
| Sticker | Master Guardian Elite (Holo)sticker · Remarkable | 21.0% | $0.65 1,082 BUX | 3.9% | 71 | 72.5 | 0.98× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Little Crown (Tracer Yellow)graffiti · Base Grade | 22.0% | $0.56 932 BUX | 3.5% | 75 | 75.9 | 0.99× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Sealed Graffiti | Little Crown (Tracer Yellow)graffiti · Base Grademaxz9590$3.876,452 BUX$0.56932 BUX0.14x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $3.87 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 20.0%Covert 17.0%classified 20.0%Remarkable 21.0%Base Grade 22.0%best hit —