Clash Manifest
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.59
9,316 BUX
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $5.03 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.02%
387 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
51.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 415 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $20.47 34,103 BUX | 16.3% | 14 | 16.6 | 0.84× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 10.0% | $12.97 21,608 BUX | 25.8% | 37 | 41.5 | 0.89× |
| StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 15.0% | $6.64 11,062 BUX | 19.8% | 89 | 62.3 | 1.43× |
| Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $5.98 9,962 BUX | 23.8% | 68 | 83.0 | 0.82× |
| FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 25.0% | $1.90 3,165 BUX | 9.4% | 92 | 103.8 | 0.89× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b | 26.0% | $0.96 1,599 BUX | 5.0% | 115 | 107.9 | 1.07× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$5.599,316 BUX$5.989,962 BUX1.07x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLudomanas$5.599,316 BUX$6.6411,062 BUX1.19x
Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$5.599,316 BUX$5.989,962 BUX1.07x
Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedLudomanas$5.599,316 BUX$5.989,962 BUX1.07x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.599,316 BUX$20.4734,103 BUX3.66x
Souvenir M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedLudomanas$5.599,316 BUX$5.989,962 BUX1.07x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$5.599,316 BUX$12.9721,608 BUX2.32x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $5.59 | 89.99% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 19.0%Covert 10.0%restricted 20.0%violet 25.0%#eb4b4b 26.0%best hit —