Cosmic Crossfire
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$577.46
962,044 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $519.71 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $6,253 10,417,864 BUX | 60.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $787 1,310,558 BUX | 15.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $390 649,973 BUX | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $255 425,046 BUX | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 10.0% | $219 364,154 BUX | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $144 239,170 BUX | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 20.0% | $68.45 114,037 BUX | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 25.0% | $55.82 92,996 BUX | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
No history yet
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $577 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 35.0%restricted 35.0%classified 30.0%