Dark Ritual
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.12
5,197 BUX
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $2.81 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.10%
673 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 685 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $20.58 34,286 BUX | 7.3% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.17× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $13.14 21,891 BUX | 23.4% | 34 | 34.3 | 0.99× |
| StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $5.12 8,529 BUX | 27.4% | 101 | 102.8 | 0.98× |
| P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 17.0% | $3.75 6,247 BUX | 22.7% | 105 | 116.5 | 0.90× |
| Sealed Graffiti | Rising Skullgraffiti · Remarkable | 15.0% | $1.57 2,615 BUX | 8.4% | 92 | 102.8 | 0.90× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 22.0% | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 6.9% | 147 | 150.7 | 0.98× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $0.44 733 BUX | 3.9% | 198 | 171.3 | 1.16× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$3.125,197 BUX$0.881,466 BUX0.28x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$3.125,197 BUX$5.128,529 BUX1.64x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$3.125,197 BUX$5.128,529 BUX1.64x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$3.125,197 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.14x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecHALAMADRID$3.125,197 BUX$0.881,466 BUX0.28x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$3.125,197 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.14x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$3.125,197 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.14x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$3.125,197 BUX$0.44733 BUX0.14x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$3.125,197 BUX$0.881,466 BUX0.28x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $3.12 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 23.0%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%Remarkable 15.0%milspec 22.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit —