Discord Essence
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.22
3,702 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2.00 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.41%
690 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 734 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $11.65 19,408 BUX | 11.6% | 15 | 14.7 | 1.02× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 20 | $9.42 15,693 BUX | 23.5% | 33 | 36.7 | 0.90× |
| Welcome to the Clutch Pinpin · High Grade | 16.0% | $2.77 4,614 BUX | 22.2% | 106 | 117.4 | 0.90× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 16.0% | $2.61 4,348 BUX | 20.9% | 140 | 117.4 | 1.19× |
| Souvenir SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade | 18.0% | $0.93 1,549 BUX | 8.4% | 134 | 132.1 | 1.01× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 20.0% | $0.88 1,466 BUX | 8.8% | 137 | 146.8 | 0.93× |
| Patch | Danger Zonepatch · Remarkable | 23.0% | $0.40 666 BUX | 4.6% | 169 | 168.8 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$2.223,702 BUX$0.881,466 BUX0.40x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$2.223,702 BUX$2.614,348 BUX1.17x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecLudomanas$2.223,702 BUX$0.881,466 BUX0.40x
Souvenir SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$2.223,702 BUX$0.931,549 BUX0.42x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecLudomanas$2.223,702 BUX$0.881,466 BUX0.40x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $2.22 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.0%Restricted 5.0%High Grade 16.0%Mil Spec Grade 16.0%Industrial Grade 18.0%milspec 20.0%Remarkable 23.0%best hit —