Mystic Meteors
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$144.75
241,158 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $130.28 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
62.33%
34 openings, odds method
Variance
3.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 34 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert | 1 in 33 | $1,712 2,852,458 BUX | 39.4% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $280 465,746 BUX | 10.7% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 11.0% | $144 239,204 BUX | 12.1% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.07× |
| StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 11.0% | $128 212,981 BUX | 10.8% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Orion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6 | 11.0% | $107 177,912 BUX | 9.0% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.07× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 25.0% | $73.92 123,150 BUX | 14.2% | 10 | 8.5 | 1.18× |
| StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec | 34.0% | $14.27 23,773 BUX | 3.7% | 9 | 11.6 | 0.78× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$145241,158 BUX$14.2723,773 BUX0.10x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$145241,158 BUX$73.92123,150 BUX0.51x
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertKronerkongen$145241,158 BUX$128212,981 BUX0.88x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified$145241,158 BUX$73.92123,150 BUX0.51x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$145241,158 BUX$14.2723,773 BUX0.10x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$145241,158 BUX$14.2723,773 BUX0.10x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedKronerkongen$145241,158 BUX$73.92123,150 BUX0.51x
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$145241,158 BUX$14.2723,773 BUX0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $145 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 3.0%covert 27.0%#d32ee6 11.0%classified 25.0%mil spec 34.0%best hit —