Phantom Pharaohs

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.89

13,147 BUX

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $7.10 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.01%

140 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

98 openings · below min

30 days

84.01%±22.13140 openings

since tracking started

84.01%±22.13140 openings

17.5%67.8%118.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	67.85%±49.5	—	odds
7d	98	71.50%±26.5	—	odds
30d	140	84.01%±22.1	−0.5σ	odds
All	140	84.01%±22.1	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 156 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 25	$51.37 85,582 BUX	28.9%	5	6.2	0.80×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$22.84 38,051 BUX	22.5%	8	10.9	0.73×
Souvenir AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	19.0%	$8.42 14,027 BUX	22.5%	27	29.6	0.91×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	20.0%	$3.99 6,647 BUX	11.2%	38	31.2	1.22×
Souvenir P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	20.0%	$3.53 5,880 BUX	9.9%	32	31.2	1.03×
MAG-7 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade	30.0%	$1.15 1,915 BUX	4.9%	46	46.8	0.98×

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from 500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$7.8913,147 BUX$1.151,915 BUX0.15x11h

Souvenir P90 | ScaraB Rush (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$7.8913,147 BUX$3.535,880 BUX0.45x11h

Souvenir AWP | Black Nile (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$7.8913,147 BUX$8.4214,027 BUX1.07x11h

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covertHALAMADRID$7.8913,147 BUX$3.996,647 BUX0.51x11h

MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$7.8913,147 BUX$1.151,915 BUX0.15x14h

Souvenir P90 | ScaraB Rush (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$7.8913,147 BUX$3.535,880 BUX0.45x14h

MAG-7 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade$7.8913,147 BUX$1.151,915 BUX0.15x14h

Souvenir P90 | ScaraB Rush (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restrictedkdeen$7.8913,147 BUX$3.535,880 BUX0.45x14h

Souvenir P90 | ScaraB Rush (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted$7.8913,147 BUX$3.535,880 BUX0.45x14h

Souvenir AWP | Black Nile (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$7.8913,147 BUX$8.4214,027 BUX1.07x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 22:26 UTC	$7.89	90.00%	6

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 4.0%covert 27.0%Mil Spec Grade 19.0%Restricted 20.0%Consumer Grade 30.0%best hit —