Temporal Tides
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$41.78
69,600 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $37.60 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.11%
22 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 22 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified | 1 in 100 | $341 567,772 BUX | 9.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Souvenir Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 20 | $117 194,755 BUX | 15.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $65.05 108,373 BUX | 26.0% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 16.0% | $63.28 105,424 BUX | 26.9% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 20.0% | $18.96 31,587 BUX | 10.1% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 21.5% | $12.58 20,958 BUX | 7.2% | 8 | 4.7 | 1.69× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 21.5% | $9.15 15,243 BUX | 5.2% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.27× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$41.7869,600 BUX$9.1515,243 BUX0.22x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$41.7869,600 BUX$63.28105,424 BUX1.51x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$41.7869,600 BUX$12.5820,958 BUX0.30x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkomnuu$41.7869,600 BUX$12.5820,958 BUX0.30x
StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$41.7869,600 BUX$63.28105,424 BUX1.51x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$41.7869,600 BUX$9.1515,243 BUX0.22x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricteduser-a62de3$41.7869,600 BUX$12.5820,958 BUX0.30x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$41.7869,600 BUX$9.1515,243 BUX0.22x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $41.78 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 1.0%Mil Spec Grade 21.0%covert 15.0%Restricted 20.0%restricted 43.0%best hit —