Forgotten Realms
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.34
3,899 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $2.11 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.62%
574 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 604 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $12.13 20,208 BUX | 5.8% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.66× |
| P250 | Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 40 | $7.24 12,061 BUX | 8.6% | 13 | 15.1 | 0.86× |
| PP-Bizon | Bamboo Print (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 1 in 29 | $4.36 7,263 BUX | 7.2% | 24 | 21.1 | 1.14× |
| StatTrak™ SG 553 | Triarch (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 22 | $3.99 6,647 BUX | 8.5% | 30 | 27.2 | 1.10× |
| M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 1 in 15 | $3.41 5,681 BUX | 10.5% | 35 | 39.3 | 0.89× |
| Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade | 19.0% | $2.48 4,131 BUX | 22.4% | 100 | 114.8 | 0.87× |
| M249 | Aztec (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 28.0% | $1.47 2,449 BUX | 19.5% | 168 | 169.1 | 0.99× |
| Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec | 35.0% | $1.05 1,749 BUX | 17.4% | 224 | 211.4 | 1.06× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec$2.343,899 BUX$1.051,749 BUX0.45x
Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil SpecALT-F4$2.343,899 BUX$1.051,749 BUX0.45x
Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil SpecLe Shake$2.343,899 BUX$1.051,749 BUX0.45x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Triarch (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedLidthyggepågeden$2.343,899 BUX$3.996,647 BUX1.70x
Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Specuser54e6878a$2.343,899 BUX$1.051,749 BUX0.45x
Souvenir Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec$2.343,899 BUX$1.051,749 BUX0.45x
Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer GradeLudomanas$2.343,899 BUX$2.484,131 BUX1.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $2.34 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 29.0%classified 2.5%Consumer Grade 22.5%Restricted 4.5%industrial 6.5%Mil Spec 35.0%best hit —