Skull Hazard
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.17
13,609 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $7.35 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.19%
97 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 97 openings and 30.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 97 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver Serpentother · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 22 | $21.00 34,986 BUX | 12.9% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.92× |
| Dagger (Diamond)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 15 | $15.50 25,823 BUX | 13.7% | 3 | 6.3 | 0.48× |
| Sarcophagus (Silver)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 12 | $13.40 22,324 BUX | 15.5% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× |
| Glittering Glove (Aluminium)other · Classified | 11.5% | $9.50 15,827 BUX | 14.9% | 15 | 11.2 | 1.34× |
| Soldier Toy (Lead)other · Mil Spec Grade | 14.0% | $7.00 11,662 BUX | 13.3% | 12 | 13.6 | 0.88× |
| Statuette (Iron)other · Industrial Grade | 15.0% | $6.25 10,413 BUX | 12.8% | 15 | 14.5 | 1.03× |
| Amulet (Iron)other · Industrial Grade | 18.0% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 11.0% | 19 | 17.5 | 1.09× |
| Ornament (Obsidian)other · Consumer Grade | 22.0% | $2.00 3,332 BUX | 6.0% | 24 | 21.3 | 1.12× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $8.17 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMil Spec Grade 25.0%Industrial Grade 41.5%Classified 11.5%Consumer Grade 22.0%best hit —