Historic Havens
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.92
8,194 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $4.43 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.37%
203 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 211 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heliodor Helmother · Consumer Grade | 1 in 143 | $27.00 44,982 BUX | 4.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| Mystic Mosaic (Manganese)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 48 | $19.00 31,654 BUX | 9.0% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.35× |
| Golden Garnet Grailother · Industrial Grade | 1 in 24 | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 11.4% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.02× |
| Statuette (Iron)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 14 | $6.25 10,413 BUX | 9.9% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× |
| Pyramid (Pyrite)other · Mil Spec Grade | 10.5% | $5.00 8,330 BUX | 11.9% | 28 | 22.2 | 1.26× |
| Memento (Moonstone)other · Consumer Grade | 15.5% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 15.8% | 31 | 32.7 | 0.95× |
| Pendant (Pyrite)other · Industrial Grade | 35.0% | $3.00 4,998 BUX | 23.7% | 77 | 73.8 | 1.04× |
| Bracelet (Brass)other · Industrial Grade | 25.0% | $2.50 4,165 BUX | 14.1% | 48 | 52.8 | 0.91× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $4.92 | 90.01% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedConsumer Grade 16.2%Mil Spec Grade 12.6%Industrial Grade 71.2%best hit —