Rustic Rebelion
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.60
2,671 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.02%
EV $1.44 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.83%
1,189 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,271 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knuckles (Brass)other · Restricted | 1 in 125 | $12.00 19,992 BUX | 6.7% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.28× |
| Bronze-Bound Bookendother · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 32 | $7.00 11,662 BUX | 15.0% | 43 | 39.4 | 1.09× |
| Brass Baubleother · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 17 | $4.00 6,664 BUX | 16.6% | 83 | 76.3 | 1.09× |
| Bracelet (Brass)other · Industrial Grade | 11.0% | $2.50 4,165 BUX | 19.1% | 149 | 139.8 | 1.07× |
| Amber Amuletother · Consumer Grade | 15.1% | $1.90 3,165 BUX | 19.9% | 194 | 191.9 | 1.01× |
| Bronze Ornamentother · Industrial Grade | 17.0% | $1.10 1,833 BUX | 13.0% | 204 | 216.1 | 0.94× |
| Almost Amber Anklet (Amber)other · Consumer Grade | 21.0% | $0.45 750 BUX | 6.6% | 240 | 266.9 | 0.90× |
| Plank of wood (Wood)other · Consumer Grade | 26.0% | $0.18 300 BUX | 3.2% | 345 | 330.5 | 1.04× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.02%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $1.60 | 90.02% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 0.8%Mil Spec Grade 9.1%Industrial Grade 28.0%Consumer Grade 62.1%best hit —