Eclipse Expedition
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.98
1,637 BUX
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $0.88 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.24%
1,366 openings, odds method
Variance
33.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,482 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oracle Orb (Obsidian)other · Restricted | 1 in 1,000 | $165 274,890 BUX | 18.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| Obelisk (Obsidian)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 250 | $34.00 56,644 BUX | 15.4% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| Knot (Nickel)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 29 | $2.10 3,499 BUX | 8.3% | 49 | 51.9 | 0.94× |
| Ornament (Obsidian)other · Consumer Grade | 1 in 18 | $2.00 3,332 BUX | 12.4% | 65 | 81.5 | 0.80× |
| Orb (Onyx)other · Consumer Grade | 1 in 12 | $1.60 2,666 BUX | 15.4% | 114 | 126.0 | 0.90× |
| Nugget (Nickel)other · Industrial Grade | 12.0% | $0.80 1,333 BUX | 10.9% | 183 | 177.8 | 1.03× |
| Moonstone Marbleother · Consumer Grade | 15.0% | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 11.9% | 219 | 222.3 | 0.99× |
| Aluminum Foil Hatother · Consumer Grade | 25.0% | $0.13 217 BUX | 3.7% | 413 | 370.5 | 1.11× |
| Steel Studother · Consumer Grade | 30.0% | $0.10 167 BUX | 3.4% | 435 | 444.6 | 0.98× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 09:57 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $0.98 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedRestricted 0.1%Industrial Grade 12.4%Mil Spec Grade 3.5%Consumer Grade 84.0%best hit $165 (167.9x)