Obscured Truths
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.72
2,869 BUX
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $1.55 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
128.59%
649 openings, odds method
Variance
48.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 684 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 1,000 | $375 624,750 BUX | 24.2% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| Amulet (Amethyst)other · Consumer Grade | 1 in 111 | $22.00 36,652 BUX | 12.8% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.49× |
| Obelisk (Onyx)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 33 | $5.50 9,163 BUX | 10.6% | 13 | 20.5 | 0.63× |
| Ornament (Obsidian)other · Consumer Grade | 1 in 13 | $2.00 3,332 BUX | 10.3% | 71 | 54.7 | 1.30× |
| Orb (Onyx)other · Consumer Grade | 11.0% | $1.60 2,666 BUX | 11.4% | 64 | 75.2 | 0.85× |
| Medallion (Manganese)other · Consumer Grade | 13.0% | $1.50 2,499 BUX | 12.6% | 92 | 88.9 | 1.03× |
| Bronze Ornamentother · Industrial Grade | 17.0% | $1.10 1,833 BUX | 12.1% | 128 | 116.3 | 1.10× |
| Ring (Tin)other · Consumer Grade | 22.0% | $0.22 367 BUX | 3.1% | 145 | 150.5 | 0.96× |
| Plank of wood (Wood)other · Consumer Grade | 25.0% | $0.18 300 BUX | 2.9% | 166 | 171.0 | 0.97× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 11 Nov, 09:57 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $1.72 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedMil Spec Grade 0.1%Consumer Grade 79.9%Industrial Grade 20.0%best hit $375 (217.8x)