Defiant Strike
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.51
5,850 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $3.16 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.48%
302 openings, odds method
Variance
10.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 326 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruby-Infused Wine Gobletother · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $350 583,100 BUX | 11.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Ring (Ruby)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 33 | $15.00 24,990 BUX | 14.2% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.12× |
| Runestone (Ruby)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 14 | $7.00 11,662 BUX | 15.5% | 27 | 22.8 | 1.18× |
| Goblet (Garnet)other · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 12 | $6.00 9,996 BUX | 15.9% | 27 | 27.4 | 0.99× |
| Amulet (Iron)other · Industrial Grade | 12.0% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 17.1% | 37 | 39.1 | 0.95× |
| Bronze Bloomother · Industrial Grade | 18.5% | $2.70 4,498 BUX | 15.8% | 70 | 60.3 | 1.16× |
| Bronze Ornamentother · Industrial Grade | 25.0% | $1.10 1,833 BUX | 8.7% | 59 | 81.5 | 0.72× |
| Copper Coinother · Industrial Grade | 26.0% | $0.20 333 BUX | 1.6% | 95 | 84.8 | 1.12× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $3.51 | 90.01% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.1%Mil Spec Grade 11.4%Industrial Grade 88.5%best hit —