Covenant Chronicles
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$38.86
64,733 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $34.97 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.30%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
39.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 1,000 | $814 1,355,390 BUX | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 22 | $88.15 146,857 BUX | 11.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 13 | $72.51 120,801 BUX | 16.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 12.0% | $50.67 84,416 BUX | 17.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× |
| Souvenir AWP | Acheron (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $40.29 67,123 BUX | 17.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 17.4% | $29.98 49,946 BUX | 14.9% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.92× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $19.04 31,720 BUX | 10.9% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 23.0% | $14.09 23,473 BUX | 9.3% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$38.8664,733 BUX$14.0923,473 BUX0.36x
StatTrak™ P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$38.8664,733 BUX$29.9849,946 BUX0.77x
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$38.8664,733 BUX$72.51120,801 BUX1.87x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedIlol2k$38.8664,733 BUX$19.0431,720 BUX0.49x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $38.86 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 17.5%mil spec 19.5%covert knife 8.0%covert 12.0%restricted 43.0%best hit —