Elder Engravings
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$76.07
126,734 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $68.46 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.18%
10 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
44.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
56.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 10 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $260 433,609 BUX | 3.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 20 | $166 276,855 BUX | 12.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| Souvenir XM1014 | Ancient Lore (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 11 | $111 184,992 BUX | 14.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| ★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 11 | $99.78 166,233 BUX | 13.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Patch | Elder Godpatch · exotic | 20.0% | $80.81 134,629 BUX | 23.6% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 28.0% | $40.84 68,039 BUX | 16.7% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× |
| USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New)weapon · Restricted | 28.0% | $39.22 65,340 BUX | 16.0% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedmaxz9590$76.07126,734 BUX$40.8468,039 BUX0.54x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $76.07 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%Restricted 42.0%extraordinary 9.0%exotic 20.0%classified 28.0%best hit —