Urban Uprising
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.97
3,284 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $1.77 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.57%
706 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 744 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glittering Glove (Aluminium)other · Classified | 1 in 24 | $9.50 15,827 BUX | 22.0% | 35 | 30.5 | 1.15× |
| Titanium Teardropother · Restricted | 10.0% | $3.75 6,248 BUX | 21.1% | 81 | 74.4 | 1.09× |
| Tin-Tastic Spoonother · Industrial Grade | 15.9% | $1.90 3,165 BUX | 17.0% | 105 | 118.3 | 0.89× |
| Medallion (Manganese)other · Consumer Grade | 22.0% | $1.50 2,499 BUX | 18.6% | 151 | 163.7 | 0.92× |
| Sheriff Badge (Tin)other · Consumer Grade | 23.0% | $0.99 1,649 BUX | 12.8% | 186 | 171.1 | 1.09× |
| Locket (Zinc)other · Consumer Grade | 25.0% | $0.60 1,000 BUX | 8.5% | 186 | 186.0 | 1.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $1.97 | 90.01% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 4.1%Restricted 10.0%Industrial Grade 15.9%Consumer Grade 70.0%best hit —