Sovereign Might
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$455.87
759,482 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $410.28 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
53.91%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril)other · Classified | 1 in 33 | $999 1,664,334 BUX | 7.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Precious Stone of Amethyst (Gemstone)other · Covert | 1 in 25 | $940 1,566,040 BUX | 9.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Prism (Adamantium)other · Covert | 1 in 20 | $720 1,200,000 BUX | 8.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Coin (Gold)other · Covert | 10.0% | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 15.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| Labyrinth (Lapis Lazuli)other · Restricted | 15.0% | $537 894,642 BUX | 19.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| Palladium Palaceother · Covert | 16.0% | $445 741,370 BUX | 17.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| Mystical Monolith (Moonstone)other · Covert | 22.0% | $240 399,840 BUX | 12.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| Tiny tiara (Diamond)other · Classified | 25.0% | $149 248,234 BUX | 9.1% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $456 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedClassified 28.0%Covert 57.0%Restricted 15.0%best hit —