Turmoil Artefacts
A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.65
1,079 BUX
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $0.58 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.65%
925 openings, odds method
Variance
2.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 993 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amulet (Iron)other · Industrial Grade | 1 in 20 | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 38.6% | 37 | 49.7 | 0.75× |
| Coins Of Iron (Metal)other · Mil Spec Grade | 11.0% | $1.00 1,674 BUX | 19.0% | 109 | 109.2 | 1.00× |
| Sheriff Badge (Tin)other · Consumer Grade | 12.0% | $0.99 1,649 BUX | 20.4% | 109 | 119.2 | 0.91× |
| Titanium Toothpickother · Consumer Grade | 12.0% | $0.30 500 BUX | 6.2% | 126 | 119.2 | 1.06× |
| Ring (Tin)other · Consumer Grade | 12.0% | $0.22 367 BUX | 4.5% | 118 | 119.2 | 0.99× |
| Plank of wood (Wood)other · Consumer Grade | 12.0% | $0.18 300 BUX | 3.7% | 121 | 119.2 | 1.02× |
| Talisman (Tin)other · Consumer Grade | 12.0% | $0.17 283 BUX | 3.5% | 114 | 119.2 | 0.96× |
| Steel Studother · Consumer Grade | 12.0% | $0.10 167 BUX | 2.1% | 119 | 119.2 | 1.00× |
| Rusty Nail (Iron)other · Consumer Grade | 12.0% | $0.10 167 BUX | 2.1% | 140 | 119.2 | 1.17× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $0.65 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedIndustrial Grade 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 11.0%Consumer Grade 84.0%best hit —