Ultimate 10% Knife

A case on 500 Casino, first seen 12 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

Price
$46.21
76,991 BUX
Advertised RTP
—
no catalog
Observed RTP, 30d
110.83%
28 openings, sample method
Variance
—
needs odds
Tail share
—
needs odds
Below price
—
needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
12 openings · below min
7 days
28 openings · below min
30 days
28 openings · below min
since tracking started
28 openings · below min
-0.5%115.8%232.0%

Small sample. 28 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h12112.14%±119.2—sample
7d28110.83%±83.8—sample
30d28110.83%±83.8—sample
All28110.83%±83.8—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalog500 Casino publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$46.2176,991 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.00x
★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · gold$46.2176,991 BUX$137228,175 BUX2.96x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$46.2176,991 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.00x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$46.2176,991 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.00x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$46.2176,991 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.00x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$46.2176,991 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.00x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$46.2176,991 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.00x
Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$46.2176,991 BUX$0.10167 BUX0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily
No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit —