5% DAGURA
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$2.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.19 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.64%
74.9K openings, odds method
Variance
26.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 76
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.55% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.78% – 87.51%, 74,864 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 2,000 | $345 | 7.9% | 26 | 37.5 | 0.69× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 588 | $158 | 12.3% | 143 | 127.3 | 1.12× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 385 | $90.57 | 10.8% | 248 | 194.8 | 1.27× |
| M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 263 | $66.25 | 11.5% | 293 | 284.6 | 1.03× |
| AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 217 | $53.77 | 11.3% | 373 | 344.6 | 1.08× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 98 | $24.12 | 11.2% | 705 | 764.0 | 0.92× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 90 | $22.47 | 11.4% | 673 | 831.5 | 0.81× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 79 | $19.74 | 11.4% | 810 | 943.8 | 0.86× |
| M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 1 in 38 | $9.36 | 11.4% | 1,589 | 1992.5 | 0.80× |
| M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 92.6% | $0.02 | 0.8% | 70,046 | 69385.4 | 1.01× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/5-dagura, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.50 | 87.42% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2.50 | 87.39% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $2.50 | 87.78% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.92% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2.50 | 87.53% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.50 | 87.30% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $2.50 | 87.53% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2.50 | 87.61% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $2.50 | 87.34% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.50 | 87.88% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2.50 | 86.87% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.91% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2.50 | 87.07% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $2.50 | 86.99% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2.50 | 87.65% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.7%gold 0.2%red 0.5%classified 3.4%violet 2.7%Uncommon 92.6%best hit $350 (140.1x)