5% DAGURA JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$90.20

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $78.92 from 10 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.83%

196 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

19 openings · below min

7 days

84.73%±16.36172 openings

30 days

85.83%±15.32196 openings

since tracking started

85.83%±15.32196 openings

53.0%103.0%153.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	19	103.06%±49.2	—	odds
7d	172	84.73%±16.4	−0.3σ	odds
30d	196	85.83%±15.3	−0.2σ	odds
All	196	85.83%±15.3	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 220 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	10.0%	$345	43.7%	23	22.0	1.05×
★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	10.0%	$158	20.0%	17	22.0	0.77×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	10.0%	$90.57	11.5%	23	22.0	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.0%	$66.25	8.4%	23	22.0	1.05×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	10.0%	$53.77	6.8%	16	22.0	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.0%	$24.12	3.1%	18	22.0	0.82×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$22.47	2.8%	31	22.0	1.41×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$19.74	2.5%	23	22.0	1.05×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	10.0%	$9.36	1.2%	23	22.0	1.05×
M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	10.0%	$0.02	0.0%	23	22.0	1.05×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/5-dagura-joker, 12 Nov, 02:49 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$90.20$9.360.10x5h

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$90.20$19.740.22x5h

★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertMyکτicツ“skins.army”$90.20$90.571.00x5h

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold$90.20$1581.75x8h

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$90.20$3453.82x8h

M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$90.20$9.360.10x8h

★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertZirq$90.20$90.571.00x8h

M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$90.20$24.120.27x8h

M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$90.20$66.250.73x8h

★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$90.20$90.571.00x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$90.20	87.50%	10
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$87.66	87.50%	10
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$88.65	87.50%	10
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$88.67	87.50%	10
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$88.63	87.50%	10
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$88.11	87.50%	10
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$88.63	87.50%	10
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$88.80	87.50%	10
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$88.62	87.50%	10
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$88.12	87.50%	10
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$89.38	87.50%	10
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$89.17	87.50%	10

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 30.0%gold 10.0%red 10.0%classified 30.0%violet 10.0%Uncommon 10.0%best hit —