50% RACE
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$32.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $28.44 from 37 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.93%
6,619 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
51.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,619 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/50-race, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $32.50 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $32.50 | 87.83% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $32.50 | 87.98% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $32.50 | 87.79% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $32.50 | 87.91% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $32.50 | 87.97% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $32.50 | 87.99% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $32.50 | 87.75% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $32.50 | 87.88% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $32.50 | 87.94% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $32.50 | 87.85% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $32.50 | 87.94% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $32.50 | 87.69% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $32.50 | 87.68% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $32.50 | 87.85% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $32.50 | 87.93% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $32.50 | 87.68% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $32.50 | 87.99% | 37 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $32.50 | 87.83% | 37 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 3.2%covert 17.5%epic 0.0%red 16.4%sunny 0.7%classified 3.7%Ancient 5.0%restricted 7.2%rare 1.0%violet 4.8%mil spec 3.4%milspec 37.0%best hit $644 (19.81x)