50% RACE JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$138.32
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $121.03 from 37 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.02%
314 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 345 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/50-race-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $138 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $139 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $138 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $139 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $140 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $139 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $140 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $141 | 87.50% | 37 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedgold 8.0%covert 37.3%epic 4.0%red 17.3%sunny 4.0%classified 4.0%Ancient 4.0%restricted 6.0%rare 1.3%violet 6.0%mil spec 4.0%milspec 4.0%best hit $775 (5.53x)