ARABESQUE

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$260.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $227.49 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.08%

2,282 openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.19%±21.58270 openings

7 days

85.58%±8.281,872 openings

30 days

85.08%±7.472,282 openings

since tracking started

85.08%±7.472,282 openings

58.0%80.3%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	270	80.19%±21.6	−0.7σ	odds
7d	1,872	85.58%±8.28	−0.5σ	odds
30d	2,282	85.08%±7.47	−0.6σ	odds
All	2,282	85.08%±7.47	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,282 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 370	$7,130	8.5%	7	6.2	1.14×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$1,569	8.6%	31	28.3	1.10×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 60	$1,157	8.5%	47	38.3	1.23×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	23.7%	$401	41.7%	0	540.1	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 22	$253	5.2%	108	105.9	1.02×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 30	$200	2.9%	0	76.0	0.00×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 67	$183	1.2%	0	34.0	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 19	$172	4.0%	117	120.9	0.97×
P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 18	$158	3.8%	128	125.3	1.02×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 17	$138	3.5%	154	132.1	1.17×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 14	$78.11	2.5%	194	165.9	1.17×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · sunny	1 in 14	$76.61	2.5%	184	167.3	1.10×
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 19	$74.34	1.7%	0	120.5	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12	$55.72	2.0%	200	190.1	1.05×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 11	$49.95	1.9%	202	198.5	1.02×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	10.2%	$32.85	1.5%	252	232.5	1.08×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/arabesque, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$260$7,19027.66x4d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contrabandziomek$260$7,13027.42x2d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$260$7,13027.42x3d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$260$7,12727.41x3d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$260$7,10227.31x1d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contrabandhossy$260$7,04027.08x5d

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contrabandSuzii$260$7,04027.08x5d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · coverthossy$260$1,6176.22x5d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covertCRISTIANO RONALDO$260$1,6176.22x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Fuel Injectorweapon · red$260$3761.45x54m

AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red$260$1380.53x54m

★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$260$2530.97x54m

★ Moto Gloves | POW!gloves · sunnyCICINKA67CS2.ME$260$98.290.38x54m

★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · sunny$260$76.610.29x55m

AUG | Lil' Pig (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$260$32.850.13x55m

★ Moto Gloves | POW!gloves · sunnyChrasťoušekS$260$98.290.38x55m

P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$260$1580.61x57m

AK-47 | Fuel Injectorweapon · redChrasťoušekS$260$3761.45x57m

AUG | Lil' Pig (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$260$32.850.13x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$260	87.50%	16
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$260	87.69%	16
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$260	87.85%	16
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$260	87.05%	16
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$260	87.59%	16
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$260	87.83%	16
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$260	87.59%	16
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$260	87.12%	16
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$260	87.33%	16
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$260	87.83%	16
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$260	87.33%	16
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$260	87.15%	16
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$260	87.66%	16
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$260	87.67%	16
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$260	86.99%	16
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$260	87.62%	16
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$260	86.99%	16
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$260	87.62%	16
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$260	87.33%	16
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$260	87.35%	16
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$260	87.51%	16
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$260	87.35%	16
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$260	87.51%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcontraband 0.3%covert 48.2%extraordinary 6.8%pink 15.7%red 21.8%sunny 7.3%best hit $7,190 (27.66x)