ARABESQUE JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$892.57
Advertised RTP
90.50%
EV $807.77 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.00%
435 openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 476 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/arabesque-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $893 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $890 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $896 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $893 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $900 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $896 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $900 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $886 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $894 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $886 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $886 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $897 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $888 | 90.50% | 16 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $884 | 90.50% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 7.1%covert 42.9%extraordinary 7.1%pink 14.3%red 21.4%sunny 7.1%best hit $7,191 (8.02x)