ASLAN
A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$10.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $8.75 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.62%
8,710 openings, odds method
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 36
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
89.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,724 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 233 | $222 | 10.9% | 50 | 37.5 | 1.33× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 185 | $175 | 10.8% | 44 | 47.1 | 0.93× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 169 | $159 | 10.7% | 57 | 51.5 | 1.11× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 167 | $158 | 10.8% | 61 | 52.3 | 1.17× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 161 | $152 | 10.8% | 52 | 54.1 | 0.96× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 145 | $135 | 10.6% | 64 | 60.2 | 1.06× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 137 | $129 | 10.7% | 72 | 63.7 | 1.13× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 116 | $109 | 10.7% | 66 | 75.0 | 0.88× |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 18 | $16.80 | 10.7% | 474 | 485.9 | 0.98× |
| R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn)weapon · blue | 89.4% | $0.32 | 3.3% | 7,784 | 7796.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/aslan, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $10.00 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $10.00 | 87.06% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $10.00 | 87.54% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $10.00 | 87.41% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $10.00 | 87.63% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $10.00 | 87.71% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $10.00 | 87.63% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $10.00 | 87.71% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $10.00 | 87.09% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $10.00 | 87.88% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $10.00 | 87.25% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $10.00 | 87.97% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $10.00 | 87.05% | 10 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $10.00 | 87.44% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $10.00 | 87.72% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $10.00 | 87.73% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $10.00 | 87.89% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.1%classified 5.6%blue 89.4%best hit —