ASLAN JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$143.39
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $125.47 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.28%
409 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 439 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $222 | 17.7% | 39 | 43.9 | 0.89× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 10.0% | $175 | 13.9% | 52 | 43.9 | 1.18× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 10.0% | $159 | 12.7% | 42 | 43.9 | 0.96× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $158 | 12.6% | 46 | 43.9 | 1.05× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 10.0% | $152 | 12.1% | 44 | 43.9 | 1.00× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $135 | 10.7% | 54 | 43.9 | 1.23× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 10.0% | $129 | 10.2% | 38 | 43.9 | 0.87× |
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $109 | 8.7% | 33 | 43.9 | 0.75× |
| AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $16.80 | 1.3% | 45 | 43.9 | 1.03× |
| R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Well-Worn)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $0.32 | 0.0% | 46 | 43.9 | 1.05× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/aslan-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $143 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $142 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $144 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $144 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $144 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $144 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $146 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $145 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $144 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $143 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $146 | 87.50% | 10 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $146 | 87.50% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 80.0%classified 10.0%blue 10.0%best hit —