BANG BANG

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$5.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $4.81 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.67%

7,859 openings, odds method

Variance

18.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.46%±27.19972 openings

7 days

76.53%±9.886,754 openings

30 days

79.67%±9.187,859 openings

since tracking started

79.67%±9.187,859 openings

52.5%80.5%108.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	972	80.46%±27.2	−0.5σ	odds
7d	6,754	76.53%±9.88	−2.2σ	odds
30d	7,859	79.67%±9.18	−1.7σ	odds
All	7,859	79.67%±9.18	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,867 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$816	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,222	$616	5.8%	1	3.5	0.28×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 1,333	$370	5.8%	8	5.9	1.36×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 971	$268	5.7%	6	8.1	0.74×
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 935	$257	5.7%	2	8.4	0.24×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 532	$146	5.7%	12	14.8	0.81×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$131	1.9%	0	5.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$126	1.9%	0	5.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$122	2.0%	0	6.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 442	$121	5.7%	12	17.8	0.67×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 155	$42.22	5.7%	42	50.9	0.83×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$24.27	0.3%	0	4.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 69	$8.86	2.7%	0	114.2	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 19	$8.49	9.1%	0	405.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$8.31	9.2%	0	418.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$7.65	4.1%	0	201.9	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$7.05	5.7%	0	307.2	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$7.02	5.7%	0	306.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$7.02	10.5%	470	564.7	0.83×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 62	$4.88	1.6%	0	126.2	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 156	$4.80	0.6%	0	50.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 131	$4.24	0.7%	0	60.1	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 121	$4.01	0.7%	0	65.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 287	$3.23	0.2%	0	27.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 80	$1.30	0.3%	0	97.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 79	$1.29	0.3%	0	99.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 68	$1.15	0.4%	0	116.2	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 459	$0.97	0.0%	0	17.2	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 329	$0.74	0.0%	0	23.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 298	$0.71	0.0%	0	26.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 258	$0.63	0.1%	0	30.4	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 182	$0.50	0.1%	0	43.3	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 154	$0.43	0.1%	0	51.0	0.00×
MP9 \| Shredded (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 142	$0.41	0.1%	0	55.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 129	$0.39	0.1%	0	61.0	0.00×
MP9 \| Shredded (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 41	$0.17	0.1%	0	190.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 37	$0.16	0.1%	0	212.3	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 34	$0.15	0.1%	0	232.9	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 34	$0.15	0.1%	0	232.9	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 35	$0.15	0.1%	0	222.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 34	$0.15	0.1%	0	232.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 34	$0.15	0.1%	0	232.5	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 31	$0.14	0.1%	0	256.5	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$0.14	0.1%	0	244.8	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$0.14	0.1%	0	244.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$0.14	0.1%	0	249.2	0.00×
MP9 \| Shredded (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 32	$0.14	0.1%	0	249.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 199	$0.14	0.0%	0	39.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 91	$0.08	0.0%	0	86.4	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 23	$0.03	0.0%	0	340.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 13	$0.02	0.0%	0	599.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Citric Acid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight	1 in 13	$0.02	0.0%	0	600.9	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/bang-bang, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$5.50$629114.4x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyMasterBaiter$5.50$37067.29x13h

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyJaś$5.50$37067.29x1d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$5.50$37067.29x1d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyMakesoS$5.50$37067.29x1d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyNilatarion$5.50$36366.04x6d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$5.50$36065.44x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$5.50$34863.20x1d

★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$5.50$29854.14x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Citric Acidweapon · blueLightCS2.ME KHABIB$5.50$0.030.01x3m

SSG 08 | Blush Pourweapon · blueCS2.ME KHABIB$5.50$0.180.03x3m

MP9 | Shreddedweapon · blueCS2.ME KHABIB$5.50$0.190.03x3m

SSG 08 | Blush Pourweapon · blueCS2.ME KHABIB$5.50$0.180.03x3m

Tec-9 | Citric Acidweapon · blueLighttqnik$5.50$0.030.01x5m

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pinktqnik$5.50$7.021.28x5m

P250 | Red Tideweapon · blue$5.50$0.180.03x8m

M4A1-S | Rose Hexweapon · blue$5.50$0.190.03x8m

Tec-9 | Citric Acidweapon · blueLight$5.50$0.030.01x8m

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restrictedSoBoL BuK$5.50$1.400.25x8m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$5.50	87.50%	52
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$5.50	87.96%	52
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$5.50	87.93%	52
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$5.50	88.05%	52
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$5.50	87.94%	52
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$5.50	88.06%	52
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$5.50	87.87%	52
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$5.50	88.06%	52
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$5.50	87.94%	52
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$5.50	87.87%	52
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$5.50	87.94%	52
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$5.50	87.33%	52
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$5.50	87.81%	52
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$5.50	87.40%	52
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$5.50	88.05%	52
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$5.50	88.10%	52
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$5.50	87.33%	52
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$5.50	87.98%	52
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$5.50	87.89%	52

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.9%sunny 0.1%red 0.6%classified 7.0%Legendary 2.9%#d32ee6 5.2%pink 18.3%Mythical 1.6%uncommon 1.3%violet 1.5%Rare 7.6%blue 22.7%#4b69ff 6.2%milspec 3.0%Uncommon 4.8%blueLight 8.7%#5e98d9 7.6%best hit $629 (114.4x)