BERKAY
A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$2.00
Advertised RTP
87.05%
EV $1.74 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.89%
36.6K openings, odds method
Variance
31.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 31
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 36.7K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 16,667 | $321 | 1.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| ★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,564 | $280 | 6.3% | 0 | 14.3 | 0.00× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 7,143 | $274 | 2.2% | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 16,667 | $217 | 0.7% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,562 | $204 | 7.5% | 0 | 23.5 | 0.00× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 1,471 | $97.58 | 3.8% | 0 | 24.9 | 0.00× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $38.37 | 67.2% | 1,164 | 1117.9 | 1.04× |
| USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare | 79.5% | $0.24 | 11.0% | 28,477 | 29150.4 | 0.98× |
| M249 | Sage Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 17.2% | $0.02 | 0.2% | 6,954 | 6322.5 | 1.10× |
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/berkay, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.05%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.00 | 87.05% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.00 | 87.08% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $2.00 | 86.62% | 9 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $2.00 | 87.02% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $2.00 | 86.62% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $2.00 | 87.02% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $2.00 | 87.09% | 9 |
| 9 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.00 | 87.04% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $2.00 | 87.09% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2.00 | 87.03% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.00 | 87.08% | 9 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $2.00 | 87.03% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $2.00 | 87.04% | 9 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $2.00 | 87.03% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.00 | 87.04% | 9 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.00 | 87.06% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $2.00 | 87.22% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.00 | 87.26% | 9 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.00 | 87.04% | 9 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $2.00 | 87.26% | 9 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $2.00 | 87.35% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $2.00 | 87.02% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 3.2%Rare 79.5%#b0c3d9 17.2%best hit $294 (147.2x)