BIKE
A case on Casehug (BATTLE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$54.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $47.25 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.53%
5,977 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,019 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/bike, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $54.00 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $54.00 | 87.57% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $54.00 | 87.66% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $54.00 | 87.70% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $54.00 | 87.18% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $54.00 | 87.21% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $54.00 | 87.62% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 23:20 UTC | $54.00 | 87.46% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $54.00 | 87.56% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $54.00 | 87.46% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $54.00 | 87.68% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $54.00 | 87.71% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $54.00 | 87.38% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $54.00 | 87.71% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $54.00 | 87.38% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $54.00 | 87.34% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 15:55 UTC | $54.00 | 87.56% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $54.00 | 87.50% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 27.0%sunny 6.6%covert 5.0%Ancient 5.8%#d32ee6 8.2%violet 8.9%blue 38.7%best hit $1,910 (35.38x)