BIKE JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$289.57
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $253.37 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.25%
370 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 379 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/bike-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $290 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $291 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $294 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $295 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $294 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $296 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $296 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $296 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $295 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $295 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 04:40 UTC | $294 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $293 | 87.50% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $296 | 87.50% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 56.8%sunny 6.8%covert 4.5%Ancient 4.5%#d32ee6 4.5%violet 4.5%blue 18.2%best hit $1,910 (6.50x)