BLOSSOM WISH
A case on Casehug (Event), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$2.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $2.19 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.56%
47.1K openings, odds method
Variance
2.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/blossom-wish, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.50 | 87.50% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $2.50 | 87.51% | 41 |
| 10 Nov, 08:21 UTC | $2.50 | 87.75% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%sunny 0.0%rare 0.0%Ancient 0.0%pink 4.8%classified 0.1%Legendary 0.0%Classified 0.1%blue 18.1%violet 17.4%gray 24.6%blueLight 4.6%#d32ce6 6.5%restricted 7.5%Uncommon 7.6%common 8.6%best hit $398 (159.1x)