BUNNY HOP

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$12.75

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $11.16 from 82 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.54%

6,257 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.40%±6.221,076 openings

7 days

86.47%±2.845,172 openings

30 days

86.54%±2.586,257 openings

since tracking started

86.54%±2.586,257 openings

79.5%86.5%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,076	86.40%±6.22	−0.4σ	odds
7d	5,172	86.47%±2.84	−0.7σ	odds
30d	6,257	86.54%±2.58	−0.7σ	odds
All	6,257	86.54%±2.58	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,262 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$579	0.5%	1	0.6	—
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 5,000	$237	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$174	0.5%	2	1.9	1.06×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$150	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$124	0.1%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$119	0.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$84.46	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,695	$71.65	0.4%	0	3.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$69.34	0.4%	0	3.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$66.25	0.4%	0	4.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$59.23	0.3%	0	3.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 2,000	$58.25	0.3%	2	3.1	0.64×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$56.50	0.3%	0	3.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$52.30	0.3%	0	4.6	0.00×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 70	$46.01	5.9%	0	89.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 234	$44.98	1.7%	0	26.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 166	$37.90	2.0%	0	37.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 152	$36.20	2.1%	0	41.2	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 172	$35.52	1.8%	0	36.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 120	$34.82	2.6%	0	52.4	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 153	$33.48	2.0%	0	41.0	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 130	$31.56	2.2%	0	48.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 72	$27.68	3.4%	0	86.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 102	$23.06	2.0%	0	61.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 98	$22.66	2.1%	0	63.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 97	$22.47	2.1%	0	64.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 92	$20.72	2.0%	0	67.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 87	$20.05	2.1%	0	72.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 86	$19.98	2.1%	0	72.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 89	$19.74	2.0%	0	70.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$19.30	2.0%	0	73.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$18.02	10.9%	0	421.4	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 30	$17.52	5.3%	0	210.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 17	$13.68	7.2%	0	367.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$12.64	3.5%	0	192.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$12.58	3.5%	0	193.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 219	$12.54	0.5%	0	28.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 79	$12.12	1.4%	0	79.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 30	$12.04	3.6%	0	211.0	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 28	$11.77	3.8%	0	226.7	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$10.31	4.1%	0	274.9	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 176	$10.08	0.5%	0	35.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 238	$9.99	0.4%	0	26.4	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 157	$8.98	0.5%	0	39.8	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 141	$8.31	0.5%	0	44.5	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 137	$8.25	0.5%	0	45.6	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 126	$8.17	0.6%	0	49.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$8.10	1.5%	115	125.3	0.92×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 125	$6.69	0.5%	0	50.0	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 92	$6.39	0.6%	0	67.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 952	$5.92	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 101	$5.84	0.5%	0	62.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 508	$5.80	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 135	$4.61	0.3%	0	46.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 133	$4.57	0.3%	0	47.0	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 625	$4.54	0.1%	0	10.0	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 508	$4.53	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 285	$3.63	0.1%	0	22.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$3.27	0.4%	0	80.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 316	$3.08	0.1%	0	19.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 159	$2.81	0.2%	0	39.3	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 185	$2.40	0.1%	0	33.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 220	$2.36	0.1%	0	28.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 168	$1.99	0.1%	0	37.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 123	$1.70	0.1%	0	51.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$1.68	0.2%	0	89.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 66	$1.45	0.2%	0	95.3	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$1.44	0.2%	0	76.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 61	$1.39	0.2%	0	101.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 46	$1.16	0.2%	0	136.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 66	$1.16	0.2%	0	94.2	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$1.12	0.1%	0	93.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 60	$1.09	0.2%	0	104.0	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$1.07	0.2%	0	123.2	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$1.07	0.2%	0	123.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$1.06	0.3%	0	186.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 53	$1.01	0.2%	0	117.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$0.95	0.2%	0	121.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$0.93	0.2%	0	125.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$0.90	0.2%	0	132.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$0.86	0.2%	0	142.7	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$0.81	0.2%	0	156.2	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/bunny-hop, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$12.75$58145.56x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Liquidationweapon · restricted$12.75$2.490.20x2m

M4A4 | Turbineweapon · violet$12.75$1.460.11x2m

P250 | Nuclear Threatweapon · violet$12.75$47.443.72x2m

Desert Eagle | Firebreathingweapon · violetKacperkuuu skins.army CS2.ME$12.75$1.070.08x2m

M4A1-S | Stratosphereweapon · classified$12.75$6.540.51x4m

USP-S | Monster Mashupweapon · pink$12.75$22.721.78x4m

M4A4 | Full Throttleweapon · redKacperkuuu skins.army CS2.ME$12.75$30.372.38x4m

AWP | Ice Coaledweapon · pink$ODOMA$ skins.army CS2.ME$12.75$13.921.09x6m

Glock-18 | Moonriseweapon · violet$12.75$1.270.10x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$12.75	87.50%	82
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$12.75	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$12.75	87.58%	82
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$12.75	87.48%	82
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$12.75	87.48%	82
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$12.75	87.68%	82
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$12.75	87.34%	82
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$12.75	87.68%	82
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$12.75	87.43%	82
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$12.75	87.69%	82
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$12.75	87.43%	82
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$12.75	87.69%	82
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$12.75	87.48%	82
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$12.75	87.69%	82
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$12.75	87.48%	82
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$12.75	87.56%	82
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$12.75	87.48%	82
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$12.75	87.25%	82
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$12.75	87.36%	82
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$12.75	87.47%	82
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$12.75	87.75%	82
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$12.75	87.70%	82
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$12.75	87.41%	82
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$12.75	87.70%	82
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$12.75	87.41%	82

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.8%gold 0.0%restricted 18.0%rare 0.8%Mythical 2.7%Ancient 0.4%red 4.2%pink 15.9%classified 29.0%uncommon 5.1%#d32ce6 3.6%violet 11.6%Classified 0.8%#8847ff 4.4%Restricted 1.7%best hit $581 (45.56x)