BUNNY HOP JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$69.17

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $60.52 from 82 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.98%

925 openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82 openings · below min

7 days

89.05%±12.47696 openings

30 days

81.98%±10.82925 openings

since tracking started

81.98%±10.82925 openings

51.0%88.0%125.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	82	88.11%±36.2	—	odds
7d	696	89.05%±12.5	+0.2σ	odds
30d	925	81.98%±10.8	−1.0σ	odds
All	925	81.98%±10.8	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 929 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 27	$573	35.0%	35	34.4	1.02×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 27	$237	14.5%	23	34.4	0.67×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 27	$177	10.8%	29	34.4	0.84×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$150	4.6%	0	17.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$124	3.8%	0	17.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$113	3.5%	0	17.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$83.98	1.3%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$71.65	1.5%	0	11.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$69.34	1.4%	0	11.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$66.08	1.3%	0	11.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$59.23	0.9%	0	8.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 27	$55.48	3.4%	39	34.4	1.13×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$54.66	0.8%	0	8.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$50.80	0.8%	0	8.6	0.00×
P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 54	$46.01	1.4%	0	17.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 81	$44.64	0.9%	0	11.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$39.25	0.8%	0	11.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$36.20	0.7%	0	11.5	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 81	$34.88	0.7%	0	11.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 54	$33.95	1.0%	0	17.2	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 81	$32.63	0.7%	0	11.5	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 81	$32.02	0.7%	0	11.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 54	$27.43	0.8%	0	17.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$23.06	0.5%	0	11.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$22.80	0.5%	0	11.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$22.66	0.5%	0	11.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$20.72	0.4%	0	11.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$20.05	0.4%	0	11.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$19.98	0.4%	0	11.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$18.80	0.4%	0	11.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$18.77	0.4%	0	11.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$18.10	0.4%	0	11.5	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 81	$17.53	0.4%	0	11.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$13.18	0.2%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$12.55	0.2%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$12.54	0.2%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$12.34	0.2%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$12.07	0.2%	0	8.6	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 81	$11.64	0.2%	0	11.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$10.94	0.2%	0	8.6	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 81	$10.65	0.2%	0	11.5	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$10.31	0.2%	0	11.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$9.78	0.2%	0	11.5	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$8.98	0.2%	0	11.5	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$8.92	0.2%	0	11.5	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$8.78	0.2%	0	11.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$8.46	0.5%	33	34.4	0.96×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$8.26	0.2%	0	11.5	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 81	$6.72	0.1%	0	11.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$6.69	0.1%	0	11.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 135	$6.44	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$5.75	0.1%	0	11.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$5.51	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$4.94	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$4.62	0.1%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 108	$4.61	0.1%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 108	$4.16	0.1%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$3.63	0.1%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$3.38	0.1%	0	8.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$3.04	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$2.75	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$2.54	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$2.40	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$1.91	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$1.79	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.67	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 108	$1.39	0.0%	0	8.6	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.38	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 108	$1.38	0.0%	0	8.6	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.29	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$1.24	0.0%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$1.16	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$1.16	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 135	$1.09	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.06	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.04	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$1.03	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$0.99	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$0.93	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$0.89	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$0.86	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$0.80	0.0%	0	6.9	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/bunny-hop-joker, 12 Nov, 08:52 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$71.12$5948.35x6d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$70.78$5948.39x6d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldMorrymyioo$71.44$5948.31x7d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldCODE: vellty$71.44$5948.31x8d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$71.44$5948.31x8d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$70.50$5938.42x6d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$70.17$5898.39x3d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$70.37$5898.37x3d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$69.42$5878.46x2d

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$69.80$5818.32x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Chrome Cannonweapon · red$69.17$33.180.48x10h

M4A4 | Turbineweapon · violet$69.17$1.910.03x10h

P250 | Nuclear Threatweapon · violet$69.17$97.831.41x10h

AK-47 | B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rareM3L3R$69.17$55.480.80x10h

P250 | Nuclear Threatweapon · violetjunio$69.17$97.831.41x11h

Glock-18 | Neo-Noirweapon · redjunio$69.17$40.030.58x11h

M4A1-S | Player Twoweapon · redjunio$69.17$69.021.00x11h

MP9 | Urban Sovereignweapon · violetjunio$69.17$1.860.03x11h

Glock-18 | Moonriseweapon · violetjunio$69.17$1.620.02x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:45 UTC	$69.17	87.50%	82
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$69.62	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$69.65	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$69.54	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$68.80	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$69.07	87.50%	82
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$68.80	87.50%	82
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$69.07	87.50%	82
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$69.42	87.50%	82
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$70.17	87.50%	82
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$70.37	87.49%	82
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$69.91	87.51%	82
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$70.37	87.49%	82
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$69.71	87.49%	82
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$69.80	87.50%	82
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$69.91	87.51%	82
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$70.50	87.49%	82
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$69.80	87.50%	82
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$71.12	87.50%	82
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$70.78	87.50%	82
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$71.44	87.50%	82
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$70.70	87.50%	82

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 21.0%gold 3.7%restricted 11.9%rare 4.6%Mythical 3.3%Ancient 1.2%red 7.4%pink 15.7%classified 14.5%uncommon 4.4%#d32ce6 1.2%violet 6.3%Classified 0.9%#8847ff 3.0%Restricted 0.7%best hit $594 (8.35x)