BUTTERFLY DUST

A case on Casehug (PREMIUM FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$79.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $69.13 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.28%

11.7K openings, odds method

Variance

17.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 24

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.66%±18.401,937 openings

7 days

84.56%±8.309,732 openings

30 days

87.28%±7.6111.7K openings

since tracking started

87.28%±7.6111.7K openings

73.5%92.5%111.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,937	92.66%±18.4	+0.6σ	odds
7d	9,732	84.56%±8.30	−0.6σ	odds
30d	11.7K	87.28%±7.61	+0.0σ	odds
All	11.7K	87.28%±7.61	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$13.7K	2.0%	1	1.2	0.86×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 5,000	$9,374	2.7%	1	2.3	0.43×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$8,112	5.9%	6	5.8	1.03×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 2,500	$3,139	1.8%	7	4.7	1.50×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 667	$2,286	5.0%	15	17.5	0.86×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 400	$1,353	4.9%	31	29.2	1.06×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 90	$795	12.8%	127	129.7	0.98×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 81	$720	12.8%	134	143.8	0.93×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 75	$663	12.8%	144	155.5	0.93×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 65	$571	12.8%	202	181.2	1.12×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 12	$58.42	6.8%	914	938.5	0.97×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 12	$53.77	6.4%	984	961.9	1.02×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	11.6%	$16.96	2.9%	1,366	1359.3	1.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	12.8%	$12.50	2.3%	1,456	1490.2	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	12.8%	$12.50	2.3%	1,492	1490.2	1.00×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	12.8%	$12.26	2.3%	1,458	1498.4	0.97×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	13.6%	$9.99	2.0%	1,623	1594.2	1.02×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	14.4%	$8.31	1.7%	1,727	1684.2	1.03×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/butterfly-dust, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubySTASZEK$79.00$13.7K174.0x1h

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$79.00$9,580121.3x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireWW$79.00$8,698110.1x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireCrazyFlasH$79.00$8,698110.1x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$79.00$8,635109.3x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireTroglodytor$79.00$8,413106.5x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$79.00$8,413106.5x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$79.00$8,397106.3x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$79.00$3,15539.94x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$79.00$3,15239.90x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkSynku$79.00$12.500.16x8m

P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkDżejson Stejtam$79.00$12.500.16x8m

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon$79.00$58.420.74x8m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$79.00$9.990.13x8m

AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$79.00$16.960.21x8m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkjose$79.00$9.990.13x8m

AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$79.00$8.310.11x10m

P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$79.00$12.500.16x10m

AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkExa$79.00$8.310.11x10m

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon$79.00$58.420.74x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$79.00	87.50%	18
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$79.00	87.50%	18
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$79.00	87.43%	18
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$79.00	86.27%	18
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$79.00	86.58%	18
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$79.00	86.60%	18
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$79.00	86.66%	18
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$79.00	87.21%	18
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$79.00	87.05%	18
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$79.00	86.68%	18
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$79.00	87.08%	18
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$79.00	87.37%	18
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$79.00	87.71%	18
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$79.00	87.85%	18
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$79.00	88.13%	18
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$79.00	87.95%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.6%gold 1.1%uncommon 8.0%red 8.2%pink 78.0%best hit $13.7K (174.0x)